The following is an extract from my new book! The Scenario Planning Guide is a comprehensive and insanely practical guide for leaders who are interested in using scenarios as part of their strategic planning process. I’m hoping to launch it mid-October, but if… Read More »Think before you plan
I first studied economics nearly 30 years ago when I was still in high school. I have probably forgotten a lot of what I learnt at high school, but there is one foundational tenet of economic theory that I will… Read More »From disjointed speculation to collective assumptions
Between extreme weather events, political upheaval, regional insecurity, financial instability and global conflicts, there is a general feeling that the world is a little uncertain right now. But is the current level of uncertainty we’re experiencing different from the uncertainties… Read More »Are things more uncertain or is it just me?
**Beware, click-bait ahead** Research shows organisations are spending 36% less time working on strategy in 2022 than they did in 2021. Now I cannot vouch for the validity of that statistic* even though I believe it represents a deeper truth… Read More »The Paradox of Planning in uncertainty
There is an increasingly polarising debate emerging in many workplaces as to the permanency of remote working. For many organisations, working remotely was not a strategic decision, it was just the only possible response to a global pandemic that shut… Read More »Where will we be working in 2025?
We’re going to do a quick exercise together. I want you to take a moment to close your eyes and try and imagine a future 10 years from now. [insert 30 second pause] How did you go? What did you… Read More »The future is unknowable, but we can still prepare for it
In 2004, I competed in a Sydney Hobart yacht race. The weather conditions that year were particularly bad and only about half the fleet made it to Hobart. Most of the yachts were skippered and crewed by sailors. Mostly amateurs,… Read More »Think more like a fisher and less like a sailor
Understanding the future is the ultimate competitive advantage. Defining strategies and making decisions become a whole lot easier if you already know where the future is taking us. Unfortunately, knowing the future is incredibly difficult…but that doesn’t seem to stop… Read More »How to predict the future (and almost always get it right)