Previous posts in this series
Reflecting back on the 2021 scenarios, it’s clear that the future is never clear. We like to think of change having a beginning and an end, but it almost always exists as part of a bigger continuum. Framing it with a neat beginning, middle, and end – or with tidy options like ‘Return to office’, ‘Hybrid’, or ‘Work from home’ – can reduce the cognitive load we face, but it also risks narrowing our thinking.
To round out this reflection on the future work scenarios I wrote back in 2021, I want to pose a few questions to help leaders explore what might emerge next. What are the trends and norms that have become more embedded, and which emerging trends might we want to keep an eye on going forward?
So, as we look toward the next five years of how and where we will work, here are three questions worth asking yourself and those around you:
1. How might AI impact trust, teamwork and culture?
Perhaps the one trend that wasn’t identified as having a significant impact back in 2021 was the rise of AI. Although it was picked up as a signal, the speed with which it has entered the zeitgeist has been truly remarkable. That being said, there is still much uncertainty as to what impact it will have on the future workplace.
Unfortunately one of the areas where generative AI has proven to be truely effective is it’s role in reducing online trust. It’s estimated that north of 50% of all web traffic is generated by bots. And how much content is created by generative AI? Well, no one really knows…and that will increasingly be a problem. As generative continues to improve we will become less able to tell whether we are dealing with a real person of a malicious actor. We have already seen multiple incidences of cyber scams that involve deep faked voices, deep faked video and even a whole deep faked executive team meeting.
If trust becomes diluted enough, staff may need to return to offices more often to ‘verify’ the people they’re working with.
2. Are we willing to invest in workplaces that are truly human-first?
The design of most workplaces is one that’s focused on people working on or with technology. This hasn’t always been done well and it’s arguable that the efficiency gains people experience working from home is at least partly due to the inefficiencies and constant distraction that comes with open plan offices. Making workplaces more enjoyable to be in requires more than just a bowl of fruit and a coffee machine, it requires a rethink of what environments promote genuine wellbeing and performance. And if we can design our workplaces well and trust that they are appealing in the right circumstances, can we also trust that when people do choose to work from elsewhere it’s for very good reasons?
3. How do we build organisations that adapt?
The pandemic was perhaps one of the most significant singular events in recent corporate history. It created an environment of rapid change that forced us to question many of the fundamental beliefs about how organisations need to operate to be successful. But looking at this graph of the ‘World Uncertainty Index’, which is compiled by the International Monetary Fund, it’s also clear this is not an isolated incident. The accumulated uncertainty the world has experienced since Covid-19 is significantly more than what we experienced during the pandemic.
Ultimately, we need organisations that can respond to uncertainty more effectively. This means helping leaders to develop their strategic foresight so they can better identify future high-impact events, as well as encouraging flexibility and optionality in operations so they can respond faster.
Final Reflection:
First, thank you for humouring me as I reflect on these scenarios. In a way, I hope it helps shed light on the types of conversations that scenarios can help promote. Ultimately, scenarios aren’t about predicting the future; they’re about stretching our thinking so we’re better prepared, regardless of which future emerges.
And finally, think about what uncertainties are front of mind for your organisation right now, and what questions leaders need to be asking themselves.
Simon
