In late-2021, I wrote a series of scenarios to explore how remote and hybrid work might evolve through to 2025. At the time, uncertainty as to how and where people would be working from in the future was one of the most pressing questions that business leaders were grappling with. In Melbourne, we’d just experienced nearly two years of rolling lockdowns – and we didn’t know how many more were still to come.
Although many businesses had managed to pivot to fully remote work (with varying levels of success), the future wasn’t clear. Would everyone return to the office once the mandates were lifted? Would remote work become engrained in organisational culture or increasingly expected by employees?
With this as a backdrop, I developed a set of Future Work Scenarios to share with my clients. The goal of scenario planning isn’t to predict the future, but rather, to stimulate conversation, open people up to alternate possibilities, and ultimately help them prepare for whatever future emerges.
“When you don’t know what will happen, planning for one future is never going to be enough.“
Let’s start by going back to the future
As the scenarios covered the period through to 2025, now seems like an appropriate time to look back and reflect – what did they get right, what did they miss, and what strategic challenges still endure?
To do this justice, I’ll be sharing this as a three-part series:
- This post offers a brief snapshot of each scenario (along with a link to the original document, in case you’d like to dive deeper).
- In Part 2, we’ll explore what actually happened versus what was expected.
- In Part 3, we’ll look ahead to the critical uncertainties facing organisations today and the questions worth exploring for tomorrow.
The Four scenarios
The scenarios emerged at the intersection of two critical uncertainties:
- The normalisation of flexible work, driven by shifting cultural norms around where and how we work.
- The unemployment rate, influenced by broader economic conditions and shaping the power balance between employees and employers.
THE GREAT REGROUP
Despite the federal government’s best efforts, the Australian economy stalls. As workforces downsize and culture suffers, managers force employees back into the office to regroup and regain control.
FLEXIBILITY FIRST
As the pandemic drags on and a global recession looms, employers embrace remote workers along with global outsourcing in an effort to reduce overhead costs and drive efficiencies.
US VS THEM
As Australia struggles to meet vaccination targets, tensions grow between pro- and anti-vax camps. Is flexible work still a perk — or is working from home for people who are no longer welcome in the office?
IN THIS TOGETHER
As unemployment continues to fall, employers look for ways to attract and retain the best talent. Flexibility is no longer a nice-to-have — it’s the baseline for an increasingly empowered workforce.
You can access the full report here, including details on how the scenarios were developed.
Reflections
In the development of the scenarios, twelve strategic drivers were identified and prioritised.
Question:
In hindsight would you have prioritised the drivers in the same way? Would you have picked the same two critical uncertainties that were used to shape the scenarios?
Let’s revisit the critical uncertainties and assess how they’re tracking.
Although challenged by inflation and high interest rates, the Australian economy has fared relatively well over the last few years, and unemployment rates have remained low. It would be reasonable to suggest that in many organisations the power balance still favours the employee over the employer.
In terms of the normalisation of flex work, experiences vary greatly by industry and geography. In places like Melbourne and Sydney – where extended lockdowns were the norm – flexible work has become far more embedded than in places like Perth or Brisbane.
It reminds me of one of my favourite quotes by William Gibson:
“‘The future is already here but it’s not evenly distributed’.“
Question:
Where does the balance of power lie in your organisation – with management or employees? How is this shaping your approach to flexible work? Has it become more or less normalised since the pandemic? Would your current arrangements survive a major economic downturn?
Stay tuned for Part 2 in this series where I will break down what the original scenarios got right, what was missed, and the emerging challenges organisations now face.
Simon
