Although not technically part of the collaborative decision making framework, individual perception and the ability to see the bigger picture is still instrumental to good decision making. In fact, in some ways, the ability for individuals to not just see, but analyse what’s going on in the world around them is the foundation on which collaborative decision making is built.
Making time for deep thinking
In my work, I often use the analogy of the ocean to describe the role of leadership in times of uncertainty. When our ship hits bad weather (increased uncertainty), it’s common for our gaze to drop and to focus on what’s happening down on the deck. But unless we make time on a regular basis to look towards the horizon, we are likely to miss the next storm that is heading our way.
On a well run ship, we need to trust our people to manage what is happening today, and they need to be able to trust the leaders to see, and help them prepare for what is coming in the future. In fact, the more uncertain the weather, the more regular we need to be looking towards the horizon, as change can become both more unpredictable and more sudden.
Looking for signals of change
Just like a strengthening breeze and gathering clouds could be signs of an impending storm, leaders can find signals of how the future might be different from today if they look closely at the world around them. Often, signals stand out because of their difference. Our brains are wired for pattern recognition, and patterns are based on past experience. Therefore, if something stands out for its difference, there’s a chance it is a signal of how the future could be different from today.
But the secret to signals is in looking past the novelty. It’s not enough to go, ‘that’s interesting’, real value is in digging into why it’s interesting.
Digging into the drivers
A strengthening breeze doesn’t just materialise – it’s the result of changes in atmospheric conditions that we can’t actually see, and in most cases, can’t feel (though altitude sickness is an example of our bodily response to changes in barometric pressure). In the same way, signals tend to have one or more underlying drivers that are the root cause of the signal emerging. And just like a sailor will study the barometer to get advance warning of weather changes, futurists look to understand these underlying drivers to get advance warning of changes that might impact our organisations.
You don’t need to be a futurist to understand the future
In his book Super Forecasting – The Art and Science of Predicting Dr Philip Tetlock shares research that shows you don’t need to be a futurist, or a scientist or have any particular academic background to be good at predicting the future. All you need to do is
- Explore widely and often – Read a range of publications from across ideological spectrum and talk to people with different experiences and perspectives
- Update your views regularly – Be willing to change your mind when new information comes to light
- Collaborate with others – By making your own predictions and then sharing your prediction with others you can tap into the benefits of collective and collaborative decision making
Create a collective foundation
Ideally, this isn’t something that one member of a decision making group does, it’s something that all of them do. The value of diversity in such groups comes from the fact that people have different expertise and are looking in different directions. By having multiple lookouts on the bridge, all scanning different segments of the horizon, we are going to have a far richer understanding of what’s going on around us, and we are far more likely to spot and prepare for opportunities and challenges early.
And, in case you missed it… I had a baby.
Well, not a real one – it’s a podcast. And instead of a christening, it has just been launched (which, of course, you shouldn’t do with babies).
The Future With Friends is where we dive into the futures that matter – work-life balance, death and dying, even the future of friendships themselves. Each episode, I invite a friend to imagine a world (scenario) at least five years from now, exploring their hopes, fears, and the wild possibilities ahead.
Listen now at thefuturewithfriends.com or find it on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube.
Curious how this all came about? Click here – otherwise, just hit play and enjoy!
Simon
