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signals
of change

What are
signals of change?

One of my favourite quotes is by author William Gibson who said “The future is already here it’s just not evenly distributed”. What this means to me is that if you look carefully at the world around you, you will see other people and organisations who are already experiencing things that are coming over the horizon towards you. These are the signals of change that indicate how the future might be different from today.

You don't need to be a futurist to see the future

Research has shown that you don’t need to be a futurist, or a scientist or have any particular academic background to be good at predicting the future. All you need to do is
  • Explore widely and often - Read a range of publications from across ideological spectrum and talk to people with different experiences and perspectives
  • Update your views regularly - Be willing to change your mind when new information come to light
  • Don't stop at 'that's interesting' - When you spot a signal of change, don't stop at 'that's interesting' and instead ask some questions about why it's interesting and what changes the signal might represent

Spotting signals

I like to think of signals as ‘the things that make you go hmmm’ (like the C+C Music Factory song from the 90s). Our brains are pattern recognition machines and they largely ignore information that fits established patterns built up from our past experiences. So when we see something that doesn’t fit the pattern of the past, it could very well be an indicator of the future.

Analysing drivers
and impacts

In most cases the signal is just the surface level example of a deeper shift in the world around us. More valuable than understanding the signal is understanding these deeper shifts. Some good questions to ask once you’ve identified a signal are
  • What are the two or three big trends driving this change?
  • What might happen if those trends were amplified?
  • Who might the winners and the losers be in that future?
  • What might it mean for you and your organisation?

GET SIGNALS
delivered to your inbox

One of the regular themes for my newsletter is ‘Simon Sees’ where I share interesting signals I’ve identified recently around a particular topic or theme. If you’d like to get better at spotting and analysing signals sign up to my newsletter using the form below and get signals dropped into your inbox regularly (and if you’re interest in developing strategic foresight capabilities in your organisation so people can see the bigger picture, please get in touch to book a discovery call.

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