future work scenarios
2021-2025
The following scenarios were created to help understand how remote and hybrid work arrangements might play out over the next few years. As I write this in mid 2021 this is a hot topic for many boards and organisational leaders. There is a clear tension between what many employers and employees would like and this is further confused by ongoing challenges with a global pandemic, intermittent lockdowns, uncertainty in the global economy and countless other factors.
The good news is that scenario planning is particularly useful when it comes to complex and uncertain problems. That being said I’m not promising that the following scenarios will give you all the answers but I certainly hope that it will help you identify better questions.
Simon
what is scenario planning
Unlike other strategic planning approaches that aim to define a single preferred future for an organisation to aim at, scenarios acknowledge that the future is complex and unpredictable. Rather than determine one future and be guaranteed to get it wrong, scenario planning helps decision makers understand the ‘boundary of the future’ through multiple scenarios that are all credible, equally probable and yet entirely different.
There are many benefits of the scenario planning process. It results in decision makers thinking more deeply and critically about the trends shaping their organisation’s future. It encourages greater flexibility and responsiveness as operating conditions change. And it provides a basis for identifying new strategic options, as well as testing existing ones.
Since its inception in the 1960’s by Royal Dutch Shell, scenario planning has helped leading global organisations outperform their competitors. But you don’t need to be a Multinational organisation with a full-time scenario planning team to take advantage of this approach. The scenario planning approach can be tailored to address strategic challenges of all shapes and sizes.
To read more about how scenario planning works and the benefits it can generate, you can read more on my website
the scenario process
Define the strategic focus
Define the strategic issue and articulate the question you would like to answer.
SCAN the environment
Identify the ‘weak signals’ or emerging trends and ideas that might impact the outcome of your issue over an agreed time period.
Develop and prioritise themes
Group data from the environmental scan into themes and prioritise themes based on relative impact and predictability.
Define scenarios
Using high-impact, hard to predict (yet independent) themes, define what four possible futures might look like.
Develop narratives
Build out each of the four scenarios as a narrative, taking us from the present out to the defined time horizon.
Scenarios in use
Use the narratives to inform strategic conversations, engage stakeholders and test current and future strategic options.
The strategic focus
How will covid impact how and where people work from through to 2025?
ENVIRONMENTAL
SCAN RESULTS
The environmental scan was undertaken by myself and my research team. The scanning process identified more than 50 different factors that could influence the outcome of the strategic question. These factors were then aligned into 12 strategic themes.
The environmental scan was undertaken by myself and my research team. The scanning process identified more than 50 different factors that could influence the outcome of the strategic question. These factors were then aligned into 12 strategic themes.
STRATEGIC THEMES
option 1
STRATEGIC
THEMES
option 2
Attitudes Towards Globalisation
Will the pandemic result in the rise of nationalistic values?
Flex Becomes Normalised
How fast will remote and flex work arrangements be accepted?
Generational Leadership Shift
Will Millennial leaders bring new values and norms to the workplace?
Individual Values Change
Will Millennial leaders bring new values and norms to the workplace? Will the pandemic have a long-term impact on people’s individual priorities?
Organisational Culture
Is an organisation’s culture compatible with remote and hybrid environments?
Redefining Cities
Can the CBD and regional centres quickly respond to the needs of remote and hybrid work?
Remote Reduces Costs
Will cost reduction (rather than employee benefit) drive remote work?
Speed of Vaccination
How will attitudes towards vaccination and the speed of vaccination change?
Technology Improvements
How far can technology close the gap between real world and virtual experiences?
Unemployment Rate
Will we see sustained low unemployment or is this a short-term anomaly?
Vaccine Incentives
Will we devise suitable incentives to reach and maintain herd immunity?
Virus Spread
Will continued mutation of the coronavirus mean the spread cannot be controlled?
PRIORITISE
THEMES
Although all these themes have the potential to impact the strategic question, they will not do so equally. Some have the potential for greater impact than others.
In addition, some of these themes are relatively stable and their outcome predictable. These are likely to be the things that are already being planned for or being monitored.
Of most interest are the themes that are both high -impact and uncertain. These we need to understand better and will become the focus of our scenarios.
Over the next page is the prioritisation matrix for the twelve themes that were identified.
The good news is that scenario planning is particularly useful when it comes to complex and uncertain problems. That being said I’m not promising that the following scenarios will give you all the answers but I certainly hope that it will help you identify better questions.
Simon
